The follow-up trend of ternary material nickel market -Lithium - Ion Battery Equipment
From 2015 to 2016, 2017, and 2018, the driving logic of nickel prices is actually different. In 2015, it was more caused by a driving force of a nickel mine, including the difference between Indonesia and the Philippines. Policies, especially those of the Philippines, mainly determine the price of nickel. After 2016 and 2017, it actually experienced a change in the stainless steel industry chain, which means that the supply and demand of stainless steel determines the price of nickel.
In the first half of 2017, the inventory of stainless steel increased sharply, which led to a decline in nickel prices. In the second half of the year, the situation of stainless steel was reversed and the price rebounded. However, from November last year, especially on November After the annual meeting of the LME in January, the attention of the entire market has changed again. It may shift from the focus of stainless steel to the new energy vehicle. Many people may still think that new energy is a story, but In fact, it may have greatly affected the entire nickel industry chain, and at least there should be some major changes in the research framework and logic of one of the fundamental aspects of nickel.(Lithium - Ion Battery Equipment)
We can see that the price of nickel has also experienced some small fluctuations, but the overall focus is on the rise. If we do not consider new energy this year, the situation of the entire stainless steel industry is very similar to last year, both during the Spring Festival. Before and after the stainless steel began to accumulate, the price fell. After the Spring Festival, this situation probably improved in May and June, so last year there was a first decline and then a rise. In fact, there is such a trend today, but the whole focus is rising. This is because of the new energy cycle. This new context has led to a change in the pricing model for the entire price.
1. Global laterite nickel ore/ferronickel/stainless steel industry chain:
Indonesia's exports, my country's environmental protection storm, the expansion of Castle Peak, and the global stainless steel demand prospects are promising.
1) Indonesia export:
An important reason why people are still pessimistic about nickel in the first half of this year or at the end of last year is that the export quota of laterite nickel ore in Indonesia is constantly coming out. The overall quota is very high, so many people think that this year's nickel iron The output may be close to 500,000 tons, but in fact, if we look at the import of nickel ore this year, we can see that the export of nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia has increased, but in the Philippines we actually It can be seen that its amount has been relatively reduced. Let's see that even if these mines in Indonesia can come out, can there be such a large increase in China?
2) my country's environmental protection storm:
Low temperature high energy density 18650 3350mAh
Low temperature high energy density 18650 3350mAh
-40℃ 0.5C discharge capacity≥60%
Charging temperature: 0~45℃
Discharge temperature: -40~+55℃
Specific energy: 240Wh/kg
-40℃ discharge capacity retention rate: 0.5C discharge capacity≥60%
The production situation in the first few months of this year was the same as last year, February was lower than last year, and March was relatively higher than last year. In fact, starting from March this year, China has experienced successively from Inner Mongolia to Jiangsu, Shandong and Liaoning. Restricted by environmental protection factors, there have been a lot of production reductions, so in fact, we can see that the production of ferronickel has actually declined every month since March, April and May, so it can be considered that the output of ferronickel this year is If it is lower than expected, after July, some people may think that the environmental protection is over, or the Shanghai summit is over, whether there will be a reduction in production.
But we look at an environmental protection policy this year. We believe that the production of ferronickel this year will still be constrained by environmental factors. Judging from this year's policy, we don't think this year's policy is looser than last year, because there are some large Companies, such as Beihai Chengde of Nickel, and several state-owned companies of other non-ferrous varieties, including listed companies, have been criticized for not doing enough environmental protection, or even the leadership has some problems. Therefore, this year's environmental protection should continue to be implemented, which means that this year's output of non-ferrous metals, not only ferronickel, but also several other varieties, especially mines, may be restricted or inevitable. is restricted.
In the first half of 2017, the inventory of stainless steel increased sharply, which led to a decline in nickel prices. In the second half of the year, the situation of stainless steel was reversed and the price rebounded. However, from November last year, especially on November After the annual meeting of the LME in January, the attention of the entire market has changed again. It may shift from the focus of stainless steel to the new energy vehicle. Many people may still think that new energy is a story, but In fact, it may have greatly affected the entire nickel industry chain, and at least there should be some major changes in the research framework and logic of one of the fundamental aspects of nickel.(Lithium - Ion Battery Equipment)
We can see that the price of nickel has also experienced some small fluctuations, but the overall focus is on the rise. If we do not consider new energy this year, the situation of the entire stainless steel industry is very similar to last year, both during the Spring Festival. Before and after the stainless steel began to accumulate, the price fell. After the Spring Festival, this situation probably improved in May and June, so last year there was a first decline and then a rise. In fact, there is such a trend today, but the whole focus is rising. This is because of the new energy cycle. This new context has led to a change in the pricing model for the entire price.
1. Global laterite nickel ore/ferronickel/stainless steel industry chain:
Indonesia's exports, my country's environmental protection storm, the expansion of Castle Peak, and the global stainless steel demand prospects are promising.
1) Indonesia export:
An important reason why people are still pessimistic about nickel in the first half of this year or at the end of last year is that the export quota of laterite nickel ore in Indonesia is constantly coming out. The overall quota is very high, so many people think that this year's nickel iron The output may be close to 500,000 tons, but in fact, if we look at the import of nickel ore this year, we can see that the export of nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia has increased, but in the Philippines we actually It can be seen that its amount has been relatively reduced. Let's see that even if these mines in Indonesia can come out, can there be such a large increase in China?
2) my country's environmental protection storm:
Low temperature high energy density 18650 3350mAh
Low temperature high energy density 18650 3350mAh
-40℃ 0.5C discharge capacity≥60%
Charging temperature: 0~45℃
Discharge temperature: -40~+55℃
Specific energy: 240Wh/kg
-40℃ discharge capacity retention rate: 0.5C discharge capacity≥60%
The production situation in the first few months of this year was the same as last year, February was lower than last year, and March was relatively higher than last year. In fact, starting from March this year, China has experienced successively from Inner Mongolia to Jiangsu, Shandong and Liaoning. Restricted by environmental protection factors, there have been a lot of production reductions, so in fact, we can see that the production of ferronickel has actually declined every month since March, April and May, so it can be considered that the output of ferronickel this year is If it is lower than expected, after July, some people may think that the environmental protection is over, or the Shanghai summit is over, whether there will be a reduction in production.
But we look at an environmental protection policy this year. We believe that the production of ferronickel this year will still be constrained by environmental factors. Judging from this year's policy, we don't think this year's policy is looser than last year, because there are some large Companies, such as Beihai Chengde of Nickel, and several state-owned companies of other non-ferrous varieties, including listed companies, have been criticized for not doing enough environmental protection, or even the leadership has some problems. Therefore, this year's environmental protection should continue to be implemented, which means that this year's output of non-ferrous metals, not only ferronickel, but also several other varieties, especially mines, may be restricted or inevitable. is restricted.
