Market expansion of lithium battery industry chain -Lithium - Ion Battery Equipment
Recently, the Technical Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles was released at the 2016 annual meeting of the Chinese Society of Automotive Engineers. The framework of the roadmap released this time is "1+7", including the overall technical roadmap for energy saving and new energy vehicles and the seven thematic technical roadmaps for energy saving vehicles, pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, intelligent connected vehicles, automotive manufacturing technology, power battery technology, and automotive lightweight technology.(Lithium - Ion Battery Equipment)
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In the future, the market scale of new energy vehicles will expand rapidly, and the 4Q sales volume is expected to increase significantly month on month in the short term. According to the road map, the market scale of new energy vehicles will expand rapidly in the future. By 2020/2025/2030, the annual production and sales scale of vehicles will respectively reach 30/3500/38 million, of which the annual sales of new energy vehicles will respectively exceed 7%/15%/40% of the total sales, that is, the total sales volume will respectively exceed 2.1/525/15.2 million. New energy vehicles will become the mainstream vehicles in the future, and the market will continue to boom. In the short term, it is expected that 4Q sales will increase significantly month on month.
Leading manufacturers of ternary batteries with high technical level are expected to benefit from the new requirements of battery technology. The roadmap refers to promoting the application of new energy passenger vehicles, which is conducive to the promotion of ternary batteries. At the same time, it puts forward new requirements on battery energy density, cycle life, cost, etc. Compared with the Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2012-2020), the energy density and system cost requirements of energy batteries were updated from 300Wh/kg and 1.5 yuan/Wh to 350Wh/kg and 1.0 yuan/Wh respectively. At present, the technical level of domestic battery manufacturers cannot meet the requirements, and low-end battery manufacturers are facing the risk of elimination. Leading ternary battery manufacturers with high technical level are expected to benefit and further expand their market share.
The lithium battery materials are high-end, and the shipments of high nickel ternary positive electrode, silicon carbon negative electrode and wet diaphragm are expected to grow. The roadmap proposes relevant materials and technologies that are conducive to improving battery energy density. It points out that high capacity lithium ion battery materials such as nickel cobalt manganese layered positive electrode and graphite negative electrode should be developed by 2020, and high capacity/high voltage electrode materials and all solid state lithium secondary battery technologies should be developed by 2025. The lithium battery material industry will face structural oversupply. The demand for medium and high-end lithium battery materials, such as high nickel ternary positive electrode, silicon carbon negative electrode, and wet diaphragm, will further increase. Enterprises producing medium and high-end lithium battery materials are expected to benefit. Product shipments will grow, and the profit scale will be thickened.
Valuation and Suggestions
The implementation of policies has been accelerated. The new energy vehicle industry has entered the 4Q peak season, and the landscape of the industry chain is expected to recover month on month. It is suggested that Cangzhou Mingzhu, a leading diaphragm enterprise with relatively low valuation, should pay attention to Dangsheng Technology, a high nickel ternary anode manufacturer, Bao'an, China, a silicon carbon anode manufacturer, and Guoxuan Hi Tech, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and Aoyang Shunchang, a high-tech ternary battery manufacturer.
comment
In the future, the market scale of new energy vehicles will expand rapidly, and the 4Q sales volume is expected to increase significantly month on month in the short term. According to the road map, the market scale of new energy vehicles will expand rapidly in the future. By 2020/2025/2030, the annual production and sales scale of vehicles will respectively reach 30/3500/38 million, of which the annual sales of new energy vehicles will respectively exceed 7%/15%/40% of the total sales, that is, the total sales volume will respectively exceed 2.1/525/15.2 million. New energy vehicles will become the mainstream vehicles in the future, and the market will continue to boom. In the short term, it is expected that 4Q sales will increase significantly month on month.
Leading manufacturers of ternary batteries with high technical level are expected to benefit from the new requirements of battery technology. The roadmap refers to promoting the application of new energy passenger vehicles, which is conducive to the promotion of ternary batteries. At the same time, it puts forward new requirements on battery energy density, cycle life, cost, etc. Compared with the Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2012-2020), the energy density and system cost requirements of energy batteries were updated from 300Wh/kg and 1.5 yuan/Wh to 350Wh/kg and 1.0 yuan/Wh respectively. At present, the technical level of domestic battery manufacturers cannot meet the requirements, and low-end battery manufacturers are facing the risk of elimination. Leading ternary battery manufacturers with high technical level are expected to benefit and further expand their market share.
The lithium battery materials are high-end, and the shipments of high nickel ternary positive electrode, silicon carbon negative electrode and wet diaphragm are expected to grow. The roadmap proposes relevant materials and technologies that are conducive to improving battery energy density. It points out that high capacity lithium ion battery materials such as nickel cobalt manganese layered positive electrode and graphite negative electrode should be developed by 2020, and high capacity/high voltage electrode materials and all solid state lithium secondary battery technologies should be developed by 2025. The lithium battery material industry will face structural oversupply. The demand for medium and high-end lithium battery materials, such as high nickel ternary positive electrode, silicon carbon negative electrode, and wet diaphragm, will further increase. Enterprises producing medium and high-end lithium battery materials are expected to benefit. Product shipments will grow, and the profit scale will be thickened.
Valuation and Suggestions
The implementation of policies has been accelerated. The new energy vehicle industry has entered the 4Q peak season, and the landscape of the industry chain is expected to recover month on month. It is suggested that Cangzhou Mingzhu, a leading diaphragm enterprise with relatively low valuation, should pay attention to Dangsheng Technology, a high nickel ternary anode manufacturer, Bao'an, China, a silicon carbon anode manufacturer, and Guoxuan Hi Tech, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and Aoyang Shunchang, a high-tech ternary battery manufacturer.
