It is expected to accelerate the industrialization of fuel power cells -Lithium - Ion Battery Equipment
The cost of electrolyte and lithium salt in lithium battery is relatively small, and there is considerable room for price increase. The infrastructure construction of charging piles is significantly slower than the development of new energy vehicles. In the future, local subsidies for new energy vehicles will be inclined to the direction of power supplement, and the utilization rate of charging piles is expected to increase. The fuel cell will be used as a lithium battery supplement with special application scenarios.(Lithium - Ion Battery Equipment)
Fundamentals are still good. Leading enterprises in the industrial chain have alpha investment income:
1) The production and sales data in February were in line with expectations: in February 2019, the domestic production of new energy vehicles was about 52800, with a year-on-year growth of 43.2%. From different models, there were about 50600 passenger cars, accounting for 95.8%, 2000 passenger cars, accounting for 3.8%, and 20000 special vehicles, accounting for 0.4%. From the perspective of battery installed capacity, the total installed capacity of domestic power battery in February was 2.25GWh, down 55% month on month, but still up 118% compared with the same period last year. Due to the influence of the Spring Festival in February, the starting time is relatively short on a year-on-year basis. In addition, consumers generally choose to buy cars before the New Year, reflecting a certain seasonality, so the month on month data is relatively poor, in line with expectations.
2) It is expected that the industry will grow at a high speed: the increase of online car hailing will be large (about 600000 cars will be sold in the Chinese market in 2019, and the proportion of electric cars is expected to increase significantly)+the diversification of models (joint venture brands and foreign brands will put more in the second half of 2019) and other factors will stimulate the sales of electric cars. It is expected that the sales of electric cars in 2019 will be more than 1.65 million, 30%+year-on-year. Due to the increase of charging capacity of single vehicles, the demand for batteries increased by 40% year on year, and the demand for ternary batteries increased by 50%+.
3) Marginal weakening of negative effects of policies: The uncertainty of subsidy policies is a key factor affecting the trend of the sector. We cannot determine the extent and timing of subsidies, but it can be observed that when the low expectation policy sector is announced, the sector moves sideways or upward. The probability has completed the stress test, and its negative effects have marginal weakening. In other words, even if the subsequent policies fail to meet expectations, there is not much room for the plate callback, and the callback is also an opportunity to add positions at that time.
4) Leading enterprises: At present, the market is worried that the subsidy policy will have a significant negative impact on the industry sales and enterprise performance after the recession. We believe that the price of the industry chain can be controlled. For example, under the battery, the price will increase by 15-20%, and the volume will increase by 40-50%. At the same time, the market share of the leading enterprises is expected to further increase. When overseas enterprises enter China, their supply chain price and demand are guaranteed. In the medium and long term, after the inflection point of this year's policy, the development of dependence on subsidies has become a thing of the past. Leading enterprises are expected to achieve the medium and long term growth of stable price increase through cost reduction and efficiency increase, increasing market share and other means, and their alpha investment value is prominent. Recently, we mainly recommend lithium salt and electrolyte faucet:
Demand driven product price rise: Essentially, the electrolyte and lithium salt industry can be regarded as the attribute of overvaluation premium given to emerging industries by the fundamentals of the chemical industry. Therefore, the key to determine the product price is to study the supply and demand pattern. 1) Supply side: 2016-2017 is the peak period of electrolyte capacity layout, especially lithium salt capacity. Most of the capacity investment is concentrated in 2017-2018. Overcapacity starts to appear in the second half of 2017. We judge that the low-end capacity will be gradually cleared by 2019Q2, and the effective capacity will gradually return to the tight balance between supply and demand. 2) Demand side:
Fundamentals are still good. Leading enterprises in the industrial chain have alpha investment income:
1) The production and sales data in February were in line with expectations: in February 2019, the domestic production of new energy vehicles was about 52800, with a year-on-year growth of 43.2%. From different models, there were about 50600 passenger cars, accounting for 95.8%, 2000 passenger cars, accounting for 3.8%, and 20000 special vehicles, accounting for 0.4%. From the perspective of battery installed capacity, the total installed capacity of domestic power battery in February was 2.25GWh, down 55% month on month, but still up 118% compared with the same period last year. Due to the influence of the Spring Festival in February, the starting time is relatively short on a year-on-year basis. In addition, consumers generally choose to buy cars before the New Year, reflecting a certain seasonality, so the month on month data is relatively poor, in line with expectations.
2) It is expected that the industry will grow at a high speed: the increase of online car hailing will be large (about 600000 cars will be sold in the Chinese market in 2019, and the proportion of electric cars is expected to increase significantly)+the diversification of models (joint venture brands and foreign brands will put more in the second half of 2019) and other factors will stimulate the sales of electric cars. It is expected that the sales of electric cars in 2019 will be more than 1.65 million, 30%+year-on-year. Due to the increase of charging capacity of single vehicles, the demand for batteries increased by 40% year on year, and the demand for ternary batteries increased by 50%+.
3) Marginal weakening of negative effects of policies: The uncertainty of subsidy policies is a key factor affecting the trend of the sector. We cannot determine the extent and timing of subsidies, but it can be observed that when the low expectation policy sector is announced, the sector moves sideways or upward. The probability has completed the stress test, and its negative effects have marginal weakening. In other words, even if the subsequent policies fail to meet expectations, there is not much room for the plate callback, and the callback is also an opportunity to add positions at that time.
4) Leading enterprises: At present, the market is worried that the subsidy policy will have a significant negative impact on the industry sales and enterprise performance after the recession. We believe that the price of the industry chain can be controlled. For example, under the battery, the price will increase by 15-20%, and the volume will increase by 40-50%. At the same time, the market share of the leading enterprises is expected to further increase. When overseas enterprises enter China, their supply chain price and demand are guaranteed. In the medium and long term, after the inflection point of this year's policy, the development of dependence on subsidies has become a thing of the past. Leading enterprises are expected to achieve the medium and long term growth of stable price increase through cost reduction and efficiency increase, increasing market share and other means, and their alpha investment value is prominent. Recently, we mainly recommend lithium salt and electrolyte faucet:
Demand driven product price rise: Essentially, the electrolyte and lithium salt industry can be regarded as the attribute of overvaluation premium given to emerging industries by the fundamentals of the chemical industry. Therefore, the key to determine the product price is to study the supply and demand pattern. 1) Supply side: 2016-2017 is the peak period of electrolyte capacity layout, especially lithium salt capacity. Most of the capacity investment is concentrated in 2017-2018. Overcapacity starts to appear in the second half of 2017. We judge that the low-end capacity will be gradually cleared by 2019Q2, and the effective capacity will gradually return to the tight balance between supply and demand. 2) Demand side:
